QB · JAX
Trevor Lawrence
Week 1 vs. CLE · 2026 season
Trevor Lawrence (JAX vs. CLE) grades 95 out of 100 for Week 1 — 4 of 81 scored QBs — on elite role, strong efficiency and a tough matchup measured against other QBs. That projects to about 21.3 PPR points.
What drives the score
80th percentile among QBs. Recent-weighted usage — targets, carries and snaps.
95th percentile among QBs. PPR points per opportunity, regressed toward the positional mean.
2th percentile among QBs. Opponent points allowed to this position, plus game environment.
Each component is a 0–100 score, shown above alongside where it stands among QBs. The two differ on purpose: component scales are not comparable across positions — a receiver's share of his offense's work is structurally smaller than a starting quarterback's — so the percentile is the fair read, and the raw score is the published input. They combine multiplicatively — Role × Efficiency × Matchup × Availability — into a projected point total, which is then ranked within the position to produce the 0–100 Start Score. A great matchup for a low-usage player is still a bad start; role carries the most weight because usage is the most stable week-to-week predictor.
Recent usage
2025 season — prior-season usage, shown because 2026 weekly data has not accumulated yet.
| Wk | Att | Carries | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 30 | 2 | 23.3 |
| 17 | 37 | 8 | 23.1 |
| 16 | 36 | 6 | 31.2 |
| 15 | 32 | 5 | 44.3 |
| 14 | 30 | 4 | 19.4 |
How this number is calculated
The Start Score estimates Trevor Lawrence's expected PPR output for the upcoming week as Role × Efficiency × Matchup × Availability, then converts that projection to a 0–100 rating by percentile rank within the position. Role is recent-weighted usage over the last five games; efficiency is PPR points per opportunity regressed halfway toward the positional mean; matchup combines opponent points allowed to the position with the game's Vegas implied total; availability is a gate driven by injury designation.
Every input is computed from nflverse data (CC-BY 4.0) and Sleeper's public API. No machine-learning model is involved and no third-party projection is resold — the full formula, including every weight, is published on the Start Score methodology page.
Cold start. This score is computed before any 2026 games have been played, so role is based on prior-season usage rather than current-season data. Early-season scores are lower-confidence by construction and sharpen as real games accumulate — the prior-season signal is fully phased out by around Week 5.
Week 1, 2026 season · cold start — no 2026 games played yet
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Open toolInformational only — not betting, DFS, or lineup advice. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. PPR scoring assumed. Data via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0) and Sleeper. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or Sleeper.