MLB · SP Streaming
MLB Matchup Rater
Every upcoming SP start ranked by matchup favorability — how easy or tough is the opposing lineup? Built from season-to-date batting stats, not a black box.
42 starts with a named SP · next 7 days · sorted by matchup favorability
| Matchup | Pitcher | Opponent | ERA | WHIP | Opp FP/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorable91 | MacKenzie GoreTEX | @CLE | 4.05 | 1.25 | 5.05 |
| Favorable91 | Davis MartinCWS | @CLE | 3.00 | 1.18 | 5.05 |
| Favorable91 | Anthony KayCWS | @CLE | 4.50 | 1.43 | 5.05 |
| Favorable91 | Sean BurkeCWS | @CLE | 3.69 | 1.22 | 5.05 |
| Favorable91 | Erick FeddeCWS | @CLE | 4.41 | 1.43 | 5.05 |
| Favorable88 | Will WarrenNYY | vsDET | 3.75 | 1.36 | 4.96 |
| Favorable83 | Colin ReaCHC | vsSD | 4.80 | 1.41 | 5.05 |
| Favorable83 | Roki SasakiLAD | vsSD | 4.88 | 1.33 | 5.05 |
| Favorable83 | Shohei OhtaniLAD | vsSD | 1.58 | 0.90 | 5.05 |
| Favorable75 | Shane McClanahanTB | @KC | 3.30 | 1.22 | 5.31 |
| Favorable64 | Noah SchultzCWS | @BAL | 5.82 | 1.34 | 5.66 |
| Favorable64 | Brady SingerCIN | vsBAL | 5.12 | 1.54 | 5.66 |
| Favorable64 | UnknownCIN | vsBAL | — | — | 5.66 |
| Neutral60 | Joey CantilloCLE | vsTEX | 3.87 | 1.35 | 5.63 |
| Neutral60 | Framber ValdezDET | @TEX | 4.05 | 1.33 | 5.63 |
| Neutral60 | Taj BradleyMIN | @HOU | 3.98 | 1.28 | 5.41 |
| Neutral57 | Freddy PeraltaNYM | @TOR | 4.53 | 1.37 | 5.66 |
| Neutral56 | Andrew AlvarezWSH | @BOS | 3.44 | 1.47 | 5.84 |
| Neutral56 | Bryce MillerSEA | vsLAA | 1.97 | 0.72 | 5.83 |
| Neutral55 | Jacob MisiorowskiMIL | vsCIN | 1.45 | 0.77 | 5.67 |
| Neutral51 | Michael McGreevySTL | @ATL | 3.12 | 1.14 | 5.67 |
| Neutral51 | Dustin MaySTL | @ATL | 4.30 | 1.20 | 5.67 |
| Neutral50 | Michael LorenzenCOL | vsMIA | 6.83 | 1.79 | 6.05 |
| Neutral50 | Walbert UreñaLAA | @SEA | 3.14 | 1.34 | 5.74 |
| Neutral46 | Seth LugoKC | vsTB | 4.18 | 1.37 | 6.04 |
| Neutral45 | Paul SkenesPIT | @PHI | 3.10 | 0.97 | 5.79 |
| Neutral45 | Jared JonesPIT | @PHI | 5.76 | 1.44 | 5.79 |
| Neutral40 | Payton TolleBOS | vsWSH | 2.78 | 1.02 | 6.09 |
| Tough36 | Chase BurnsCIN | @MIL | 2.36 | 1.08 | 6.49 |
| Tough34 | Zac GallenAZ | vsSF | 6.15 | 1.58 | 6.24 |
| Tough33 | Troy MeltonDET | @NYY | 2.39 | 0.85 | 6.14 |
| Tough33 | Slade CecconiCLE | vsCWS | 4.18 | 1.36 | 6.32 |
| Tough33 | Gavin WilliamsCLE | vsCWS | 3.81 | 1.17 | 6.32 |
| Tough33 | Parker MessickCLE | vsCWS | 2.85 | 1.06 | 6.32 |
| Tough33 | Tatsuya ImaiHOU | vsMIN | 5.36 | 1.32 | 6.24 |
| Tough30 | Walker BuehlerSD | @CHC | 3.81 | 1.31 | 6.44 |
| Tough30 | Andre PallanteSTL | @CHC | 3.83 | 1.23 | 6.44 |
| Tough30 | Kyle LeahySTL | @CHC | 4.09 | 1.48 | 6.44 |
| Tough29 | Zack WheelerPHI | vsPIT | 2.03 | 0.86 | 6.61 |
| Tough29 | Alan RangelPHI | vsPIT | 4.50 | 1.17 | 6.61 |
| Tough24 | Reynaldo LópezATL | vsSTL | 3.47 | 1.37 | 6.41 |
| Tough8 | J.T. GinnATH | vsLAD | 3.15 | 1.22 | 6.81 |
How the Matchup Rater works
Matchup favorability (0–100) measures how favorable the opposing lineup is for a starting pitcher — higher is better for the SP. It is computed as 100 minus the team's offense score, so a 75 means the opposing lineup ranks in roughly the bottom 25% of MLB offenses this season.
Team offense score aggregates three signals across qualified batters (≥ 30 PA) for the opposing team: average fantasy points per game (60% weight), HR per game (25%), and inverted K-rate — 100 minus the team's SO/PA percentile (15%). All three are min-max normalized across all 30 teams before weighting. A strikeout-heavy lineup has a lower offense score (and thus a higher matchup favorability for the SP facing it).
What it is not wOBA or wRC+. Those metrics require FanGraphs data that isn't accessible from our CI pipeline. The offense score uses MLB Stats API counting stats only. It captures volume (fp/G), power (HR/G), and contact quality (K%) from the same primary source as all other RankFantasy data. The methodology is labeled so you know exactly what went into it.
Use alongside the Start Score. The MLB Start Score's SP matchup signal currently defaults to neutral (no lineup adjustment) because wRC+ is unavailable. The Matchup Rater provides the lineup-quality lens the Start Score doesn't yet have. For the full picture, check both: a pitcher with a strong Start Score and a Favorable matchup is the streaming sweet spot.
Park context. The Park column shows whether the game is in a hitter-friendly (run factor > 106), pitcher-friendly (< 94), or neutral park. This does not feed into the matchup score — it is additional context for your decision.
Data updates nightly. Batting stats, probable starters, and park factors are refreshed by the ETL each morning. Same-day lineup changes may not be reflected. Always confirm starter status before locking lineups.
Related tools
Tonight's named probable starters — season form, matchup grade, and park context — the game-first SP complement to the MLB Start Score.
Open tool →MLB Start Score — Daily Fantasy RatingsA transparent 0–100 per-game rating for every MLB player — season form, matchup, and park factor — formula published, every input citable.
Open tool →MLB Fantasy Streaming FinderBest waiver-wire pickups for the next 7 days — Start Scores aggregated across all upcoming games to rank SP and batter streamers, with a 2-start bonus for pitchers.
Open tool →Informational only — not betting, DFS, or lineup advice. Lineup quality based on season-to-date stats; does not account for day-to-day lineup construction. Probable starters update nightly; confirm on game day. Stats via the MLB Stats API; park factors from FanGraphs. Not affiliated with or endorsed by MLB or any MLB club.