MLB · SP Streaming
MLB Matchup Rater
Every upcoming SP start ranked by matchup favorability — how easy or tough is the opposing lineup? Built from season-to-date batting stats, not a black box.
17 starts with a named SP · sorted by matchup favorability
| Matchup | Pitcher | Opponent | ERA | WHIP | Opp FP/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral59 | Noah SchultzCWS | @BAL | 5.57 | 1.33 | 4.80 |
| Neutral57 | Joey CantilloCLE | vsTEX | 3.62 | 1.42 | 4.99 |
| Neutral47 | Reynaldo LópezATL | vsSTL | 4.54 | 1.44 | 5.25 |
| Neutral45 | Freddy PeraltaNYM | @TOR | 4.42 | 1.33 | 5.28 |
| Tough36 | Paul SkenesPIT | @PHI | 3.82 | 1.12 | 5.55 |
| Tough35 | Colin ReaCHC | vsSD | 4.40 | 1.35 | 5.67 |
| Tough34 | MacKenzie GoreTEX | @CLE | 4.59 | 1.34 | 5.67 |
| Tough34 | Shane McClanahanTB | @KC | 3.36 | 1.12 | 5.71 |
| Tough33 | Braydon FisherTOR | vsNYM | 3.21 | 1.27 | 5.58 |
| Tough31 | Will WarrenNYY | vsDET | 3.92 | 1.37 | 5.90 |
| Tough30 | Zack WheelerPHI | vsPIT | 3.06 | 1.06 | 6.08 |
| Tough29 | Andrew AlvarezWSH | @BOS | 3.43 | 1.30 | 5.96 |
| Tough27 | Payton TolleBOS | vsWSH | 3.03 | 1.10 | 6.04 |
| Tough27 | Troy MeltonDET | @NYY | 2.76 | 1.13 | 5.91 |
| Tough21 | Michael McGreevySTL | @ATL | 3.95 | 1.28 | 5.90 |
| Tough19 | Seth LugoKC | vsTB | 5.17 | 1.47 | 6.21 |
| Tough9 | Walker BuehlerSD | @CHC | 4.63 | 1.35 | 6.48 |
How the Matchup Rater works
Matchup favorability (0–100) measures how favorable the opposing lineup is for a starting pitcher — higher is better for the SP. It is computed as 100 minus the team's offense score, so a 75 means the opposing lineup ranks in roughly the bottom 25% of MLB offenses this season.
Team offense score aggregates three signals across qualified batters (≥ 30 PA) for the opposing team: average fantasy points per game (60% weight), HR per game (25%), and inverted K-rate — 100 minus the team's SO/PA percentile (15%). All three are min-max normalized across all 30 teams before weighting. A strikeout-heavy lineup has a lower offense score (and thus a higher matchup favorability for the SP facing it).
What it is not wOBA or wRC+. Those metrics require FanGraphs data that isn't accessible from our CI pipeline. The offense score uses MLB Stats API counting stats only. It captures volume (fp/G), power (HR/G), and contact quality (K%) from the same primary source as all other RankFantasy data. The methodology is labeled so you know exactly what went into it.
Use alongside the Start Score. The MLB Start Score's SP matchup signal currently defaults to neutral (no lineup adjustment) because wRC+ is unavailable. The Matchup Rater provides the lineup-quality lens the Start Score doesn't yet have. For the full picture, check both: a pitcher with a strong Start Score and a Favorable matchup is the streaming sweet spot.
Park context. The Park column shows whether the game is in a hitter-friendly (run factor ≥ 106), pitcher-friendly (≤ 94), or neutral park. These are wide bands on purpose: in the current factors only Coors Field and Petco Park clear them, so nearly every game reads Neutral. This does not feed into the matchup score — it is additional context for your decision.
Data updates nightly. Batting stats, probable starters, and park factors are refreshed by the ETL each morning. Same-day lineup changes may not be reflected. Always confirm starter status before locking lineups.
Related tools
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Open toolMLB Start Score — Daily Fantasy RatingsToday's 0 to 100 rating of how good a start every MLB hitter and pitcher is, from recent form, the matchup and the ballpark. The formula is published and every input comes from open data.
Open toolMLB Waiver Wire PickupsThe best pickups for the next seven days, ranking pitchers and hitters by their scores across every upcoming game, with a bonus for pitchers who start twice.
Open toolInformational only — not betting, DFS, or lineup advice. Lineup quality based on season-to-date stats; does not account for day-to-day lineup construction. Probable starters update nightly; confirm on game day. Stats via the MLB Stats API; park factors from FanGraphs. Not affiliated with or endorsed by MLB or any MLB club.