NBA Player Prop Projector

How the Prop Projector works

The formula. A player's projected stat for tonight is (Projected Minutes / 36) × Per-36 Rate × Matchup × Availability. It is the NBA Start Score formula with one box-score stat (points, rebounds, assists or 3-pointers) in place of fantasy points, so the two tools never disagree about a player's minutes, matchup or status.

Projected minutes is a decay-weighted average of the last 10 games (most recent weighted 18%, fading to 3%), with the back-to-back haircut already applied: ×0.55 for players averaging 32+ minutes on the second night of a back-to-back, ×0.92 for everyone else.

Per-36 rate is the player's total of the stat over the last 60 days divided by total minutes, times 36, then regressed toward the rate for their position (Guard, Forward or Center): (games × player rate + 15 × position rate) ÷ (games + 15). A player with 15 games counts half as himself. The raw rate is shown beside the regressed one so you can see how much the regression moved it.

Matchup is the same bounded multiplier (0.85–1.15) the Start Score uses: the opponent's fantasy points allowed per game to this position over the last 60 days, against the league average. It is a fantasy-points signal, not a per-stat one — a defense that gives up rebounds but not assists gets one number for both. That is a known limit of this version.

Availability comes from ESPN's injury report, read once a day with the box scores. Out and doubtful players project to zero and are labeled; questionable players are multiplied by 0.85. Check news before a game.

Hit rates count how many of the last 5, 10 and 20 played games (at least one minute) finished above the number you entered. A game that lands exactly on a whole-number line is neither over nor under, and the log marks it as a push. Hit rates describe the past; the projection is our estimate of tonight.

Who is included. The top 70 guards, 70 forwards and 35 centers on the slate by projected fantasy points: starters and the first rotation players off the bench, the tier props are written on. A player outside that cut is not on the list.

What this is not. We do not publish lines, odds or picks, and we do not say over or under. The number you check against is yours. A projection is an estimate with real error around it — minutes move with foul trouble and blowouts, and a 60-day sample is small.

Data. Game logs, schedule and injury report from ESPN's public data feed. Projected minutes, matchup and availability are pre-computed daily by the NBA ETL and cached in Supabase; this page shapes them at build time and never calls ESPN directly. No machine-learning model is used.

Last reviewed: October 2026