NFL Player Prop Projector

How the Prop Projector works

The formula. A player's projected stat for the week is Projected Opportunities × Stat per Opportunity × Matchup × Availability. It is the NFL Start Score formula with one box-score stat in place of PPR points, so the two tools never disagree about a player's matchup or status.

Opportunities are the unit each stat is earned per: pass attempts for passing yards and touchdowns, carries for rushing yards, targets for receptions and receiving yards, carries plus targets for rushing-plus-receiving touchdowns. Projected opportunities are a decay-weighted average of the last 5 regular-season games (40%, 25%, 15%, 10%, 10%, most recent first), the Start Score's window.

Stat per opportunity is the same decay-weighted average of the player's per-game rate, regressed 50% toward the position's pooled rate over the window (every player at the position, total stat ÷ total opportunities). Yards per target and touchdowns per touch are noisy in five games, so half the rate is the position's. The raw rate is shown beside the regressed one.

Matchup is the Start Score's bounded multiplier (0.85–1.15): the mean of the opponent's fantasy points allowed to the position against the league average and the team's implied total against the league average. It is a fantasy-points signal, one number for every stat — a defense that gives up catches but not yards gets the same multiplier for both. A known limit.

Availability is the Start Score's: the official injury designation from nflverse where published, else Sleeper's live status. Out players project to zero and are labeled; questionable players are discounted.

Hit rates count how many of the last 5 and 10 regular-season games, and this season's games, finished above the number you entered. Games the player did not appear in are not in the log. A game that lands exactly on a whole-number line is neither over nor under, and the log marks it as a push.

Who is included. The top 32 quarterbacks, 64 running backs, 80 receivers and 32 tight ends by this week's projected PPR points, about the depth a 12-team league rosters and the tier props are written on. A player outside that cut is not on the list.

What this is not. We do not publish lines, odds or picks, and we do not say over or under. The number you check against is yours. A five-game window is small and game script moves every one of these stats.

Data. Weekly player stats, schedule and lines from nflverse (CC-BY 4.0); injury status from nflverse and Sleeper. Matchup and availability are pre-computed weekly by the ETL and cached in Supabase; this page shapes them at build time. No machine-learning model is used.

Last reviewed: October 2026