TE · DAL
Jake Ferguson
Week 3 vs. BAL · 2026 season
Jake Ferguson (DAL vs. BAL) grades 79 out of 100 for Week 3 — 31 of 151 scored TEs — on elite role, strong efficiency and a neutral matchup measured against other TEs. That projects to about 7.0 PPR points.
What drives the score
72th percentile among TEs. Recent-weighted usage — targets, carries and snaps.
97th percentile among TEs. PPR points per opportunity, regressed toward the positional mean.
63th percentile among TEs. Opponent points allowed to this position, plus game environment.
Each component is a 0–100 score, shown above alongside where it stands among TEs. The two differ on purpose: component scales are not comparable across positions — a receiver's share of his offense's work is structurally smaller than a starting quarterback's — so the percentile is the fair read, and the raw score is the published input. They combine multiplicatively — Role × Efficiency × Matchup × Availability — into a projected point total, which is then ranked within the position to produce the 0–100 Start Score. A great matchup for a low-usage player is still a bad start; role carries the most weight because usage is the most stable week-to-week predictor.
Recent usage
2026 season — most recent 2 weeks.
| Wk | Tgt | Tgt Share | Air Yds Share | Snap % | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4 | 12.9% | 11.9% | 60.0% | 20.3 |
| 1 | 2 | 6.7% | 1.9% | 76.0% | 2.6 |
How this number is calculated
The Start Score estimates Jake Ferguson's expected PPR output for the upcoming week as Role × Efficiency × Matchup × Availability, then converts that projection to a 0–100 rating by percentile rank within the position. Role is recent-weighted usage over the last five games; efficiency is PPR points per opportunity regressed halfway toward the positional mean; matchup combines opponent points allowed to the position with the game's Vegas implied total; availability is a gate driven by injury designation.
Every input is computed from nflverse data (CC-BY 4.0) and Sleeper's public API. No machine-learning model is involved and no third-party projection is resold — the full formula, including every weight, is published on the Start Score methodology page.
Week 3, 2026 season · data through Week 2
Related tools
This week's 0 to 100 rating of how good a start every NFL skill player and team defense is, with the three parts that set it shown beside each score. The formula is published and every input comes from open data, so you can check it.
Open toolFantasy Injury ReportWho practised, who didn't, and each player's official status for the game, from the official injury report managers check every Friday and Saturday.
Open toolPlayer Opportunity Share TrackerWho is getting the targets, carries, snaps and air yards, week over week, so you can spot a growing role before the points arrive.
Open toolFantasy Defense vs. PositionWhich NFL defenses give up the most and fewest fantasy points to each position, so you can see who has the easy matchup this week.
Open toolInformational only — not betting, DFS, or lineup advice. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. PPR scoring assumed. Data via nflverse (CC-BY 4.0) and Sleeper. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or Sleeper.